Fire Sky - Climatology

The Sunrise and Sunset model is based on ECMWF and GFS-HRRR model. The model will identify the appropriate cloud and weather structure that allows firesky to happen. Since the weather is a dynamic process and the current model data is based on prediction algorithms from climate satellites in different countries, the result might be wrong. Sunrise report will update each day at 1:00 am, and sunset report will update each day at 3:00 pm. There will be a final update 1 hr before sunset to optimize the accuracy of predictions.

Sunset

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Location — Date — FireSky

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Recommend Level

Quality Level

Reason and description

Air Quality Index

Reason and description

Disclaimer

Atmospheric phenomena are dynamic processes, and a single prediction should be used as guidance rather than absolute certainty. Weather conditions can change rapidly, and spectacular displays may occur even when not predicted due to localized atmospheric variations. Since the model will gather more data in future, I will try my best to improve accuracy in future days.

Methodology And Photo Reference

Our advanced prediction system analyzes multiple atmospheric factors to generate comprehensive forecasts. Using proprietary machine learning algorithms, we process real-time meteorological data to create reliable probability assessments. AOD represents the Aerosol Optical Depth index, which affects sunset light color and image clarity.

Fire Sky Quality Reference: Visual examples of different quality levels from 2 (Ordinary) to 9 (Spectacular)

Recommendation Level Info

Our advanced prediction system uses percentage-based probability assessments. Please remember: atmospheric phenomena are dynamic processes, and predictions should be used as guidance rather than absolute certainty. Weather conditions can change rapidly, and spectacular displays may occur even when not predicted due to localized atmospheric variations.

5% Local areas have almost no fire clouds, mostly overcast or completely cloudless. Very low probability of any significant display.

20% Clear sky conditions with normal horizon glow, or atmospheric obstacles blocking distant light paths. Limited fire sky potential.

25% Clear sky with enhanced aerosol content creating strong deep red light bands at the horizon. Moderate enhancement expected.

40% Mixed conditions with heavy cloud cover or cloud layers that may be too thick or low to be properly illuminated. Results may vary significantly.

50% Cloud formations present but with some limiting factors such as excessive thickness or suboptimal positioning. Moderate probability of display.

75% Excellent conditions with suitable mid-high clouds as the 'stage' and clear distant light paths. Strong potential for memorable fire sky displays.

90% Outstanding atmospheric transparency combined with optimal cloud formations. Very likely to produce vivid, spectacular colors that photographers should not miss.

Quality Index Detailed Explanation

The quality index is a 0-10 scale that indicates the potential spectacle level when favorable conditions occur. Our proprietary scoring system analyzes multiple atmospheric factors to generate this assessment. Generally, higher scores indicate more dramatic displays. Note: this index is most reliable when the recommend level is 2 or above, as lower levels indicate limiting factors that may prevent optimal viewing conditions.

0-2 Local sunset is ordinary, perhaps twilight glow or very small-scale, short-duration fire clouds.

2-4 Will be a decent fire cloud, but the cloud coverage in the sky may not reach spectacular levels yet.

4-6 This stage is already excellent fire clouds, with appropriate cloud coverage, suitable cloud height, and suitable cloud types. It will be a memorable fire cloud. Photographers should take action at this index.

7-10 This data has not appeared yet. But I think such fire clouds could perhaps be called once-in-a-decade. If you are lucky enough to see such fire clouds, it means your luck is beyond words. Perhaps you can make many people envious on social platforms.

AOD LEVEL Detailed Explanation

AOD (Aerosol Optical Depth) measures atmospheric particle concentration, which significantly affects sunset colors and clarity. The ideal range for spectacular fire clouds requires balanced aerosol levels - enough to enhance colors but not so much as to obscure the display.

AOD < 0.2 The sky has almost no pollution, the sun's outline is clear at sunset, and colors are mainly concentrated near the horizon, but overall not brilliant enough.

AOD 0.2 - 0.5 Aerosols fully scatter red and pink light, making evening glow colors saturated and richly layered, ideal conditions for producing the most brilliant fire clouds.

AOD 0.5 - 1.0 Excessive particles start to obscure sunlight, causing colors to be widespread but tend toward dim yellow, reducing sky transparency and brightness.

AOD > 1.0 Sunlight is severely weakened, the sky appears dim and murky, evening glow loses almost all brilliance, appearing as dull gray-red.